Iran war imminent
Tuesday, February 28th, 2012Luo seems this time the United States is bent on returning to Asia. He believes that the Obama administration will be the U.S. military shift to the Asia-Pacific region, there are four purposes:
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First, to maintain U.S. global leadership, China’s rise not suited to the United States, the United States worried that China shake its status.
The United States is eager to maintain hegemony in the Asia-Pacific region, indicating the presence of the United States, does not allow an exclusive pattern of political, economic, and security forces in the Asia-Pacific region.
Chinese take-off wings, south of ASEAN, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization in the north, but the two regional organizations are not the United States, the United States therefore afraid of China crowding out.
Second, take the ride, and of the rapid development in the Asia-Pacific to solve domestic economic difficulties. In the situation of global economic growth, weak, and into Europe’s debt crisis in Europe compared to Asia-Pacific region to become prompted the speed of the engine of global economic, more than half of U.S. foreign investment and trade in the Asia-Pacific region, therefore, the strategic focus of the United States is bound to tilt to the Asia-Pacific region.
Three, to stir up trouble in the Asia-Pacific region, the use of contradiction cliques. Five military alliance of US-Japan, U.S. and South Korea, the United States and Australia, the United States in the Asia-Pacific region recently, the United States with some of the South China Sea countries to strengthen military ties.
One of the U.S. The aim is to send a signal to them, although the United States to slash military spending, but the U.S. does not reduce their security commitments.
China as the main rival is not an American President will, but the continuation of the Cold War mentality.
Establishment of new China, President Truman made his famous Truman Doctrine, the core idea is to curb the expansion of communism in the world, Obama proposed a return to the Asia-Pacific is a continuation of this idea.
Fourth, in the Asia-Pacific region ahead of the layout plan to curb the rise of China. Although some U.S. officials admitting their guilt,
You look around, the United States in the Asia-Pacific region to strengthen the alliance relationship with the five adjust the group’s deployment of the five military bases, military bases around China to seek more rights to access, strategic partners to develop more usable and resources, to strengthen against China strategic reconnaissance and joint military exercises, who believe this is not aimed at China? Not the return of the Cold War mentality?
Trouble
Ass to the offensive
General Luo Yuan, is not optimistic about the Obama administration’s wishful thinking. He said the U.S. defense strategy adjustment in the adjustment of strategic systolic, seemingly aggressive, in fact, based on the offensive. The reason there are three:
First, the strategic adjustment is belated adjustment. 1990s after the Kosovo war, the United States that has basically the Balkans settle the strategic balance in order to maintain global strategic balance, the original European focus can be tilted towards the Asia-Pacific region.
However, due to the Therefore, this adjustment is the last adjustment to continue, but this adjustment does not mean that the U.S. has been
Speakman, geopolitical strategists, who ruled Europe and Asia, whoever controls the fate of the world. Eurasian balance of power will directly affect the United States, the United States will not set Europe the expense, it will still
Second, the strategic adjustment is the upset of the U.S. economic downturn. The strategic adjustment of the United States during the Cold War and a serious confrontation in the former Soviet Union and the strategic adjustment in the latter part of the Vietnam War, mostly in the strategic expansion of the initiative to adjust.
This adjustment in the U.S. economy was the financial crisis hit the economy to enhance fatigue, high unemployment, facing budget slashed under the pressure of a passive adjustment.
American military power, economic strength has always been backed by the current economic problems, impecunious, had to downsize its military personnel. Even own military difficulties the United States how much capital for the Asia-Pacific region?
Third, this adjustment is that the U.S. experienced after the war in Iraq and Afghanistan war strategy contraction. The two wars consumed much of the U.S. financial and material resources, the after-effects of war have long plagued the United States.
The United States realized that it has no longer able to adhere to the
The United States have been impossible fingers spread, he must hold the rope fist, which is called the U.S. enemies too, are very hard to press the gourd dipper float. Military strategic focus towards the Asia-Pacific region,
Luo Yuan, general emphasized that the United States to return to the Asia-Pacific, will not bring security to the region, will be turbulent, he asked, said: It will give the Asia-Pacific region to bring peace and tranquility?
U.S. military to return to the Asia-Pacific
Or a major strategic error
Early last month, the U.S. Navy combat Minister Jonathan Greenert said the United States more than 1/3 the number of warships will be transferred to the Western Pacific Region.
Luo Yuan, Response:
The …… the United States is now a total of 11 carriers in the Middle East on the deployment of three, but also while several housekeeping nursing homes, this is the case, sending third aircraft carrier to the Western Pacific Region is very difficult.
Luo Yuan, a reminder:
Luo explained that the wrong time refers to the themes of our times is peace and development, rely on the gunboat policy can not be unsuccessful in the long term;
Wrong place, there are still a threat to U.S. homeland security, the Middle East crisis-ridden, this time to return to the Asia-Pacific is not a wise choice;
The wrong opponent is to choose China as a strategic imaginary enemy, is equivalent to choose a defeated opponent, because the Chinese nation indomitable spirit.
The last century, the 1950s Korean War, weapons disparities, we still win, not to mention a quantum leap in China’s national strength has been.
Focused their attention on Japan
Guard against the Japanese military movements
It comes to Japan in recent years, military action frequently, Luo suggested:
Luo Yuan, general that there are five main performance. First, the recent relaxation of the three principles of arms export to get rid of the shackles of the post-war constitution to become a so-called normal country.
Second, Japan is to relax the demilitarization restrictions involved in international peacekeeping and as an excuse to send troops overseas. Japan has to dispatch peacekeepers in southern Sudan still in Djibouti to establish military bases, this is a breakthrough after the war to its limit.
Third, adjust the defense principle, for the intention of the Chinese. End of last year Japan’s defense ministry announced the Japanese defense of the new principle, stressed the southwest deployment and dynamic defense, deployment of the center of gravity from the northeast to adjust to the southwest tentacles out into the distance from China’s Taiwan region is only more than 100 nautical miles of and Yonaguni Island, also Patriot 3 missiles into Okinawa.
Fourth, Japan is quietly expanding arms. Japanese submarines from 16 to 22 class helicopter destroyer
Japan would also like to engage in a helicopter destroyers of 24,000 tons, the ship is reserved for take-off of fixed-wing fighter space, said the destroyer, in fact, all light aircraft carriers, in violation of the post-war restrictions, contrary to the post-war Japan can not have offensive The provisions of the weapons. Recently, the Japanese but also from the United States to buy 42 F35 fighter planes.
Fifth, increase exercise scale. Japan for six large-scale military exercises last year, mainly to China as rivals. Last year, a North soldier – South 7th Armored Division of the Self-Defense Force ace 50,000 long-range attacks of 3000 km, rarely seen in history.
Luo believes that Japan must respect these military movements to the peoples of Asia that its military transparency.
2012 three war risks
Iran war imminent
The top priority of the United States is Iran. Both sides now have to the extent of rattling, Iran to be outdone frequent bright muscle, showing the determination to defend the country’s.
United States continue to challenge Iran’s bottom line, if the two bottom line – of Iran’s nuclear facilities and oil lifeline is a violation by the United States, Iran may at any time to make the necessary counter-measures. The United States and the European Union has made against the Iranian oil embargo measures, has been to challenge Iran’s bottom line.
In addition, the United States and Israel may also make pre-emptive strike, Luo Yuan, general judged that Iran War of 2012 in the high-risk period.
The face of domestic opposition and the pressure of the outside world, Bashar authorities to show the uncompromising attitude, this means that Syria may conflict and the West.
West also has the impulse to overthrow Bashar al-Assad regime, especially the ending of Libya, Gaddafi regime for the Western paradigm of an external interference make their desire a more expansive, we have to focus on Syria situation.
General Luo Yuan, pointed out: the South China Sea to maintain the peaceful status quo, primarily China, to take the result of a policy of restraint and patience.
He stressed that China’s goodwill by some misunderstanding, mistakenly believe that we are to take the island for peace, so insatiable, and it might lead to some unexpected event.
The Korean peninsula’s peace and stability in the common interests of all parties.
Luo Yuan, general view that the Korean Peninsula unrest, adverse parties, the relevant country would like to see the peninsula war. General Luo Yuan, the Korean Peninsula in 2012 to maintain a rough stability.
How to deal with
To be alert to the two to be calm
General Luo Yuan believes that the strategic adjustment of the U.S. for the Chinese side, although the U.S. population head never say that this is for China, but in the Asia-Pacific region, is not China but also who is? Otherwise, the need for Americans so that Lao Shi expedition?
Since the U.S. military against China, that China must make the appropriate response. He suggested that one must be vigilant, two to be calm.
The Luoyuan Jiang emphasized that we should have sense of urgency to maintain a high degree of vigilance on the U.S. military realignment, after all, the defenses can not do without, but no big deal, go its own way.
He believes us to be a rich, two stronger military, to create a favorable external environment, who can do nothing.
U.S. afraid of us? Afraid of China strong and prosperous, so do everything possible to interfere with our development, we chose not to move for its commitment and dedication to seek the development of the United States are afraid do we?
Afraid we have a good external environment, and do everything possible to sow discord, cliques, creating obstacles to our development.
We will have maneuvered skillfully used diplomacy, friends to fight better, to resolve the antithesis of the better. This regard, we should have enough self-confidence. Chinese peace-loving world for all to see.
General Luo Yuan, a sharply pointed out:
He called on the United States are most afraid of us what? Is the fear of a strong national defense,
You said that the Chinese ‘threat’, you must first was not threatened. That is why we turned to the U.S. military focus of the Asia-Pacific’s answer.
In recent years, the U.S. military strategic thinking to do the appropriate preparation for />
It should be justifiably proprietary terminology of ‘anti-intervention’ is not our People’s Liberation Army, the PLA dictionary ‘aggression’, ‘self-defense’.
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